17 - 06
Long an important source of revenue for telecom companies, roaming charges will be lifted in Europe starting June 15, raising pressure on operators in a tight market.
Roaming charges within and outside Europe account for an average of around 5 per cent of sales for telephone operators in Europe, estimates Sylvain Chevallier of BearingPoint.
But the impact of the new measure will differ for corporate and individual clients, he adds.
On the Spanish market, subject to wide seasonal variations in business due to a reliance on tourism, Telefonica estimates the end of roaming charges in the EU will lead to a 1.2 per cent drop in its sales this year.
But the change can hardly come as a shock for telecom operators, according to Victor Marcais of Roland Berger, who noted the plans have been in the works for several years and are “largely anticipated”.
“If the operators are not ready, it will be more their fault than anything else,” said Dexter Thillien, analyst with BMI Research. “It has been very gradual.”
Still, telephone operators are taking different approaches as they gear up for the change.
In Italy, for example, Wind-Tre says it implemented the European requirements two months early, while its rival TIM said it would adhere to the new rules the day they come into effect.
In France, Free expanded the reach of its roaming-charge-free zone in March, whereas Orange and Bouygues did away with the fees in May.
A fourth company, SFR, is expected to follow suit on June 15.
It will be hard to tell exactly how much the move affects telecom operators since they no longer detail the revenues in their filings.
The European Commission estimates the end of roaming fees will cost European telecom operators €1.2 billion.
The market generates 4.7 billion euros a year, according to European telecoms regulator BEREC.
But the share of revenues from roaming charges already significantly declined in recent years as charges for calls and text messages dropped 90 per cent since 2007 and data charges declined 96 per cent since 2012 under EU regulations.
Data traffic, meanwhile, has grown 100-fold, according to the EU.
Bet on growth
But the telecoms business varies greatly from country to country, with Europe’s southern countries relying heavily on tourism compared to their northern counterparts.
“Southern countries like Portugal or Greece have a lot of temporary clients and fewer with longer-term plans, so revenues from roaming fees also helped finance the costs of reinforcing networks to help deal with seasonal peaks,” said Isabelle Jegouzo, who represents the European Commission in France.
The wholesale market — business among operators — was one of the main stumbling blocs in discussions as some operators were pushing for high prices while others sought to lower them.
“Unsurprisingly, the countries in the south wanted the highest prices whereas those in the north wanted the opposite. In the end, we got a typical European agreement, win-win, with no one completely winning but each one getting a bit,” said Dexter Thillien at BMI Research.
The price per gigabyte was established at €7.70, which is set to decline until 2022.
Operators are allowed to apply surcharges — in accordance with local regulators — if losses linked to roaming surpass 3 per cent of annual net profit.
“As consumers grow accustomed to using data throughout Europe they will undoubtedly be inclined to do so outside Europe, which will compensate for some of the losses,” said BearingPoint’s Chevallier.
The European Commission is making the same bet, said Jegouzo.
It aims to stimulate the digital economy in Europe in terms of numbers of users and services in the hope that consumption rises faster than the pace of dropping prices.
“This is where operators will see gains,” said Jegouzo.
“There are positive aspects that are being underestimated, particularly how the public sees the operators,” said Roland Berger’s Victor Marcais.
“It’s a chance to improve their image but also to benefit from the rise in consumption.” afpLearn more »
17 - 06
U.S. presidents, and generally their Treasury secretaries, are hidebound by tradition to confess their everlasting adore for a clever dollar. Perhaps a new boss will sire (hee-hee) this trend, since lemme tell you: The clever dollar, that creates a exports reduction rival in unfamiliar markets, is no crony of Trump’s.During a campaign, Trump ran tough opposite a U.S. trade deficit, or exports reduction imports, final seen during about $500 billion, about -2.5 percent of GDP. Our trade necessity is exclusively in made goods; we have a over-abundance in services (financial services, entertainment, including kingship fees, egghead property, airline fares). we lift that since a linkages among the trade deficit, a detriment of production jobs and a dollar are what connects a trend we see in a figure to intensity headaches for a subsequent president.Why has a dollar climbed? One reason, discordant to Trump’s relentless trashing of a U.S. economy, is that we’re doing improved than other modernized economies, so banking traders would rather reason dollars than, say, euros. “Doing better” is not a same as “doing great,” though remember, a Federal Reserve is articulate about lifting seductiveness rates while executive banks in other grown markets are holding a seductiveness rate they control during 0 or even subsequent (negative rates … go figure). Higher U.S. seductiveness rates not usually lift a value of a dollar but also lift in collateral flows from a rest of a universe as investors buy dollars, that are both a protected and appreciating asset, relations to other currencies.
Then, in a expansion that’s unequivocally got to be operative Trump’s nerves, a Chinese yuan recently strike a lowest spin in 8 years. The yuan’s decline appears to have some-more to do with inner Chinese economics, including a downshift in growth, low seductiveness rates and an item burble (which has stirred some Chinese investors to pierce their resources abroad — partial of a collateral outflows remarkable above), than with Trump’s election. But he positively railed opposite Chinese banking debasement in a campaign, so he can’t be amatory this ongoing debasement in a yuan relations to a dollar.
The other cause pulling adult a dollar right now is Trump’s expansionary mercantile plans. As we recently described in Politico, Trump’s infrastructure devise is a perplexed giveaway to private investors. In a stream incarnation, Democrats are doubtful to go along with it, and from what I’ve heard, Republican care isn’t that vehement about it, either.
However, a large taxation cut for a rich is roughly positively entrance someday subsequent year. Markets design such mercantile process to boost acceleration and seductiveness rates, and that’s substantially one cause behind a Trump strike to a dollar we see in a pullout partial of a figure.
The acceleration indicate is germane, since a Fed could pull behind on a climbing dollar by holding off on designed rate hikes. If, however, acceleration is picking up, they’d be doubtful to pause.
Finally, a peso has been quite supportive to Trump’s rise: Trump up, peso down, as Mexicans assume a subsequent boss can’t be good for their economy.
End of a day, President-elect Trump can inveigh all day prolonged opposite a trade deficit, though as prolonged as a dollar stays high and rising, a exports will be some-more costly for a trade partners and their exports to us will be cheaper. Over a past year, a genuine value of a dollar is adult about 2 percent and production jobs are down 53,000. Go behind to 2012, and a dollar was down 2 percent and we combined about 160,000 bureau jobs.
Obviously, there are some-more relocating tools to these relations — delayed expansion and diseased direct among intensity importers of a exports are in a mix.
But to a border that group Trump cares about these issues, we don’t consider they’re going to rivet in a lot of shade around them. He has talked a lot about large tariffs and ripping adult trade agreements, though they won’t do most to revoke a trade deficit.
What will? Good question, and one I’ll spin to soon.
Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) has denounced a Collision Warning System (CWS) which, according to a company, will concede troops and polite aircraft to fly in undiluted atmosphere space with a high grade of safety.
The CWS was recently exam flown by an unnamed Western atmosphere force, and according to IAI, a agreement to yield a complement will be sealed in 2017.
Amit Haimovich, executive of selling and business growth during IAI’s Malam division, says CWS is a “lifesaving solution” designed to advise fight pilots in situations when intensity collision with blurb and municipal aircraft is imminent.
He explains that a CWS is formed on fluctuating a collision-warning functions of IAI’s EHUD range-independent air-combat manoeuvring orchestration systems.
Israel Aerospace Industries
The CWS complement can guard public platforms and advise of a vicinity and risk of collision with blurb aircraft, and monitoring is achieved by formation of inquire friend/foe information and Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) reports.
Warnings are supposing in 3 opposite forms: voice; graphical denote on a inscription panel; and around black presented on existent cockpit displays.
The complement is designed for fighters, trainers, troops helicopters and unmanned atmosphere vehicles, a association says.Learn more »
Oil prices are approaching to stand if members of a Organization of a Petroleum Exporting Countries determine subsequent week to quell wanton production, though upside will be singular if a ensuing convene give U.S. producers inducement to ramp adult outlay once again.
And President-elect Donald Trump’s appetite process skeleton could feature OPEC’s worries over detriment of marketplace share and eventually make it even easier for a U.S. to ramp adult outlay in response to aloft prices.
“News of a intensity agreement could still lend decent support to oil prices in a brief tenure outlook,” pronounced Fawad Razaqzada, technical researcher during Forex.com. But “those intensity cost gains will approaching be capped in a middle tenure by expectations of a renewed arise in oil prolongation in a U.S.”
Oil prices have seen sensitivity as a 14-member organisation of vital oil producers debates how to finish a devise announced in late Sep to extent outlay during 32.5 million to 33 million barrels a day.
OPEC is approaching to crush out a final sum during a central assembly in Vienna on Nov. 30. Its members have been entertainment behind sealed doors forward of that to plead a plan.
“It unequivocally depends on a tangible agreement, though a cost should pierce into a mid-$50s and presumably as high as $60,” presumption a understanding to cut outlay is reached, pronounced James Williams, appetite economist during WTRG Economics.
Futures prices for West Texas Intermediate wanton
settled during $48.03 a tub on a New York Mercantile Exchange on Tuesday. They’re adult about 30% year to date, though good subsequent a arise seen in 2014 above $100.
The Trump effect
Traders have been weighing a intensity impact a Trump administration will have on a appetite sector, as his devise to palliate sovereign restrictions on oil drilling would advantage some in a oil industry, though approaching serve supplement supply to an already gratified marketplace over time—weighing on prices.
In a video posted on YouTube, Trump affianced to “cancel job-killing restrictions on a prolongation of American energy,” including shale.
“Trump’s policies will have an impact though they will not be immediate,” pronounced Williams. “This year a biggest change by distant will be if OPEC’s actions outcome in aloft prices.”
Still, a impact of Trump’s policies in a oil marketplace might turn clear in a second half of subsequent year, he said.
That impact is approaching to be initial seen in a Bakken in North Dakota “as it would accelerate a execution of a North Dakota Access pipeline,” pronounced Williams. “The reduce travel cost means producers there will accept some-more for a oil they siphon and inspire them to finish some-more wells.”
Trump’s appetite policies would also eventually lead to some-more drilling on sovereign lands, that was behind during a Obama administration, Williams said.
U.S. oil prolongation was already a cause in OPEC’s preference opposite slicing outlay in late 2014, even as prices had plummeted. The group, instead, select to urge a share of a oil marketplace from non-OPEC producers, quite a U.S. shale industry.
With Trump aiming for U.S. appetite independence, OPEC could return to safeguarding a marketplace share, instead of operative to rage a tellurian supply overhang that’s dragged prices down by some-more than half from their arise in mid-2014.
Read: How Trump’s feat complicates OPEC’s oil outlay skeleton
‘An OPEC understanding will eventually assistance a U.S. turn a genuine star producer.’
Several years of $100 oil had contributed to a rate of growth and improvements in shale technology, pronounced Williams. Now oil prices “north of $70-$75 once again will bluster OPEC’s marketplace share.”
So “an OPEC understanding will eventually assistance a U.S. turn a genuine star producer,” he said. That explain to celebrity belongs to Russia, a world’s biggest oil producer, with Saudi Arabia being a largest writer in OPEC.
“A good [oil] cost will coax a completions of uncompleted wells and there are about 5,000 of them,” Williams said. Still, “no matter what Trump’s devise is, it will be months before it impacts production.”
Wait and see
To be sure, OPEC’s devise is also distant from a finished deal.
Expectations that OPEC would strech a final agreement were starting to grow. Then on Tuesday, Reuters reported that a organisation will wait until a central assembly to discuss a devise to prolongation by members by 4% to 4.5%, incompatible Libya and Nigeria. The news news also pronounced that Iran and Iraq lifted certain conditions for their appearance in a agreement.
To strech a final deal, a organisation will have to collectively determine to palliate behind production, that a International Energy Agency estimated during 33.83 million barrels a day in October.
“Rationally, a organisation should be means to strech agreement to cut a oil prolongation in 2017, even if it is usually a watered-down chronicle of what was contemplated in late Sep in Algiers,” analysts during Credit Suisse, led by Jan Stuart, pronounced in a Tuesday note.
“However, we consider it is during slightest probable that pivotal members not usually destroy to find common ground, though mangle off talks and resume a expostulate for marketplace share all over again,” they said.
OPEC would have to set particular member quotas. That will be a plea given some members, quite Iran, that wants to boost outlay to pre-sanctions levels, and Iraq, that is fighting Islamic State, have pronounced they wish to be exempted from prolongation cuts.
The domestic conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is “about energy as most as economics and therefore tough to predict,” pronounced Vic Sperandeo, boss and arch executive officer of EAM Partners, that is famous for a Trader Vic Index, a long-short algorithm that has a line focus. “Most likely, any agreement will try to demeanour positive, though will have really singular prolongation cuts.”
He expects OPEC to “lower prolongation a bit usually for show,” and that could emanate an “initial adult move,” though prices would afterwards resume a pierce lower.
Omar Al-Ubaydli, a module executive during a Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies, singled out dual scenarios. “Either they determine on any nation producing optimally from a possess perspective, and they will benefaction it as if it is a common agreement…or they will try to determine on something concrete and fail,” he said.
In both cases, he expects to see usually a “negligible effect” on prices as “oil markets are removing a small wiser to OPEC’s ineffectiveness and window-dressing.”
Still, Al-Ubaydli, does see a downside cost risk. “Trump is approaching to order policies that diminution U.S. oil imports,” he said. And a arise in shale oil prolongation means that “prices above $60 a tub are unlikely.”
That said, “Trump’s policies will have an outcome once their accurate sum are confirmed,” pronounced Al-Ubaydli. “Everyone is holding their breath.”Learn more »
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Breaking a Range with Reckless Abandon
To accept James Stanley’s Analysis directly around email, greatfully sign adult here.
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Rampant USD-strength continues, 8-month operation broken.
- Swissy is still next insurgency values from progressing in a year, that could keep a doorway open for annulment strategies for traders looking to take on short-USD exposure.
- If you’re looking for trade ideas, check out a Trading Guides.
In a final article, we asked if a operation in USD/CHF was still alive. But a prevalent run in a U.S. Dollar is stability to pound by insurgency levels as a ‘reflation’ trade gets serve priced-in to markets; and this has led to vital support or insurgency breaks in pivotal areas such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Gold. But, for most of this run one of a apparent laggards in display that USD-strength has been USD/CHF, as a span had formerly remained next before insurgency levels, giving arise to a thought that this could be an appealing venue to voice short-USD exposure.
But as we had created final week, with uninformed highs showing, traders would expected wish to put a range-trade on a back-burner until some-more information denounced itself. And it has, though in terms of a awaiting of operation delay that additional information hasn’t been really positive, as USD/CHF has damaged out to uninformed nine-month highs, holding out a Mar pitch high during 1.0092 along with it.
Moving forward, traders would expected wish to demeanour elsewhere to voice long-USD themes, as USD/CHF has continued to loiter behind markets such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY or Gold in pricing-in this newfound hitch of USD-strength. This could also keep a span as potentially appealing for traders looking to conduct off long-USD exposure, or for those looking during annulment plays in a Greenback. There are 3 intensity insurgency levels that can be employed for such an approach, as we demeanour during below. Of sold note, a section around 1.0300 is engaging as this is a 61.8% retracement of a 8-year pierce in a span (taking a 2008 high to a 2011 low), as good as being a six-year high in USD/CHF.
Chart prepared by James Stanley
— Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com
To accept James Stanley’s research directly around email, greatfully SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFXLearn more »
Earning gaps between salaried Jewish and Arab Israelis grew significantly final year, according to a consult by a Central Bureau of…
Singapore-based Nugit promises analysts 50-80% reduction time spent “extracting, cleaning and combining” information when regulating a synthetic intelligence-enhanced reports
The Singapore-based Nugit (a play on “nuggets,” of data) announced on Thursday that it lifted $5.2 million from Sequoia India, with a idea of doubling a staff and expanding a customer bottom in a nearby destiny for a marketplace that will be value over $185 billion in 2017. This is their initial open spin of financing, yet they lifted an undisclosed seed spin in Mar 2015.
Nugit’s core services core around a work in “natural denunciation generation” (NLG), an artificial intelligence routine initial grown in a 1990s to automate continue forecasts. NLG works differently from other forms of appurtenance training linguistics because, “NLG systems start with a set of ideas sealed in information and spin them into into denunciation that, in turn, communicates them.”
The idea of this interactive information access is to pull out trends and patterns for reports fast and clearly, regulating preprogrammed redeeming prompts to examination vast information sets. Marketing and promotion companies, for instance, wish to collect information that can review information on debate spending, sales, and reach. Automating this routine creates it probable to review relations costs and brand that advertisements gave a many crash for their buck, and afterwards contend as most though a need of a tellurian author to form those difference out in a report.
The initial NLGs were elementary “chatterbots.” These comparison systems were not really variable in this regard, while some-more complicated systems possess semantic engines that can, say, establish when divergent information is value stating to a customer given it already recognizes what a “average” outcome is and that atypical formula should be singled out opposite a customary model.
It is now increasingly practical to other data-intensive fields, such as a estimate of medical and financial information, or website opening figures. For finish users who review a reports stoical of a comparison data, a routine is a vital time- and labor-saver since. In Nugit’s case, it also formats a formula regulating manifest aids.
Nugit’s tip analytics clients embody Johnson Johnson, Facebook, and Startcom. It also supports methodical platforms out of Google, Baidu, Abode, and Twitter.
The Nugit appropriation once some-more reaffirms Sequoia’s concentration on e-commerce and ICT. Sequoia India has been active in a country since 2006 and progressing this year sealed a $920 million fund, a largest VC investment there to date. According to dealstreetasia.com, a endless investment rounds over a past year and a half are partial of a plan to make adult for mislaid time in a Indian start-up sector.
CEO David Sanderson founded Nugit in 2013. It now employs some-more than 27 information scientists and engineers, among other workers.
The oil markets will have to wait roughly dual some-more months before a doubt surrounding a tentative OPEC understanding is settled, so in a meantime a renewed concentration on a fundamentals is in order.
The tellurian oil prolongation design is still rarely fluid, quite with promises for a cut to OPEC prolongation while some OPEC members (Nigeria, Libya, Iran) could indeed ramp adult output. But while outlay sum are some-more formidable to pin down, information on inventories is most clearer – and it still doesn’t demeanour good for oil bulls.
As for wanton oil inventories, they sojourn during unusual heights, notwithstanding carrying come down some-more recently. In a U.S., refineries are good into upkeep season, heading to a dump off in direct in September. Crude bonds are declining, though still sojourn high. For a week finale on Sep 23, U.S. oil inventories sat during 502.7 million barrels, that is adult from 457.9 million barrels a year earlier. Softer direct from sidelined refineries could delayed a drawdowns, withdrawal a U.S. really good granted in a months ahead.
The landscape for polished products looks no improved than wanton oil. Inventories are intensely elevated, notwithstanding pretty clever demand. In Europe, gasoline bonds in a Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp are some-more than a third aloft than a five-year average. In a U.S., gasoline bonds have come down from their record highs seen progressing this year, though are still above a five-year normal for this time of year. With summer pushing deteriorate over, a sharpest drawdowns could also be behind us. For a week finale on Sep 23, gasoline inventories indeed climbed by 2 million barrels, withdrawal them 6 percent aloft than they were a year ago.
This comes notwithstanding clever direct from American motorists. Gasoline direct is adult some-more than 4.5 percent from 2015 levels. But a buildup in products is only too high. “This year it is a vast beating for gasoline — direct is there, though bonds are only too high,” a gasoline trade source told SP Global Platts. The gasoline marketplace has turn “difficult to follow,” a source added, as activity over a summer defied expectations.
On a polished products front, upkeep deteriorate is indeed a certain thing. Fewer refineries churning out product means that margins will urge and bonds could come down. The flip side of that silver is weaker wanton oil demand.
All in all, a towering levels of oil and polished products sitting in storage will almost keep a lid on wanton oil prices by a rest of this year and most of 2017. The IEA predicts that inventories won’t almost come down until someday subsequent year. In a Sep Oil Market Report, a IEA revealed that sum bonds of petroleum products in a OECD “smashed by a 3.1 billion tub wall.”
The IEA warned about negligence demand, quite in China, that could extend a oil cost slump. In fact, China stays a really vast doubt mark. The IEA pronounced that China’s oil direct was “wobbling,” and indeed direct has slowed considerably as of late, attack 10-month lows in July. But there is discuss about what to design subsequent from China.
On a one hand, SP Global Platts sees “brighter” days forward for Chinese demand, that recovered by about 2 percent in August. “Demand in Sep and Oct will be improved as collect activity and a fishing deteriorate will boost direct for gasoil. The week-long National Day holiday in Oct will also kindle gasoline direct as some-more roving is expected,” a refiner from Shandong pronounced in an talk with SP Global Platts.
On a other hand, China’s oil direct could drop off if it slows imports after stuffing adult a vast cube of a vital petroleum reserve. Oil direct was towering progressing this year in partial since of a rush to buy inexpensive oil and save it into a vital reserve. But with many storage tanks stuffing up, China competence not need as most oil. JP Morgan predicts that Chinese oil direct could tumble by about 15 percent.
Taken altogether, a oil marketplace looks most a same as it did via 2016. Supply is still surpassing demand, inventories are still during unusually high levels, and direct is growing, though not quick adequate to repair a imbalances. OPEC’s understanding competence have changed marketplace sentiment, though a fundamentals do not demeanour all that opposite than they did a few months ago.
OilPrice.com is a USA TODAY calm partner charity oil and appetite news and commentary. Its calm is constructed exclusively of USA TODAY.Learn more »
We’re in a final entertain of a year, or a homestretch, if we will, in a year in that a financial markets have started to take on a coming of a “barbell” arrangement on a charts of a vital resources classes. This year saw augmenting sensitivity a initial 6 months of a year, culminating with a Brexit vote, afterwards a 3-month prolonged laterally pattern, and now what appears to be a lapse of volatility.
In this article, we’re going to demeanour during a dual vital item classes a Nearby 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes and Nearby Comex Gold, and dry to pull a finish about a chances of a Fed rate travel by a finish of a year.
The many engaging draft to demeanour during is a multiple of a Nearby 10-year U.S. Treasury Note and a Nearby Comex Gold futures contract. As we can see, this draft shows that a dual resources changed tighten step with any other in 2016.
In sequence to know how to review a chart, we have to remember that a T-Note futures agreement moves different to seductiveness rates. So when a T-Note marketplace is going down, short-sellers are augmenting bets that seductiveness rates will go up.
This draft shows that on Dec 31, 2015, T-Notes sealed during 124’15.5 and bullion futures sealed during $1072.30.
Throughout a early half of a year, a markets trended together closely as investors started to revoke a chances of a Fed rate hike. Remember during that time that a Fed was shortening a series of rate hikes it had hinted during late final year.
T-Notes surfaced for a year during 133’08.5 and Nearby Gold surfaced for a year during $1385.00 on Jul 6.
After flapping laterally to reduce via July, Aug and September, T-Notes and Gold plunged a week-ending Oct 7. To demeanour during it another way, bullion plunged as seductiveness rates soared during a week-ending Oct 7.
Another pivotal area to demeanour during is their particular 50% levels. The 50% turn for a year for a Nearby T-Note agreement is 128’27.5. The 50% turn for a year for a Nearby Comex Gold futures agreement is $1228.65.
The finish we have to pull while comparing a Nearby T-Notes futures agreement and a Nearby Comex Gold agreement is that early in a year, investors gamble opposite a rate hike, though given Jul 6, investors have been scheming for a rate hike. However, given a dual markets are trade slight above their 50% levels for a year, there is a small reduction than a 50/50 possibility that a Fed will lift seductiveness rates this year.
Between now and a finish of a year, a pivotal levels to watch are 128’27.5 for a Nearby T-Note agreement and $1228.65 for a Nearby Comex Gold contract. If T-Notes and Gold cranky to a diseased side of their particular 50% levels afterwards we are expected to see a rate hike. If these dual markets stay above their 50% levels afterwards a Fed will not lift rates in December.
You can see that we came tighten this week, though Friday’s jobs news was not adequate to remonstrate bullion and T-Note traders that a labor marketplace is clever adequate to start scheming for a Fed rate hike.Learn more »